Utrecht 3-2 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.55
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.38
6+ Goals
11%
12.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.38 — our 28% vs market 24.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.09
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
18%
3.91
X/2
10%
10.25
X/X
9%
5.21
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
23.15
2/2
6%
7.99
2/X
8%
15.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 15% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
57%
-1.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.0pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+1.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.0pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 22%
-3% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -19%
1.91/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.51
-16% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
393 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 73%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
25.0 Crosses 19.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Willem II
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.92 xG 1.31
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
371 Passes 309
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.05.2022 Willem II Willem II 3-0 HT 1-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
31.10.2021 Utrecht Utrecht 5-1 HT 2-1 Willem II Willem II HOL
01.05.2021 Utrecht Utrecht 3-2 HT 2-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
19.02.2021 Willem II Willem II 0-6 HT 0-3 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
16.02.2020 Willem II Willem II 1-1 HT 0-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
29.09.2019 Utrecht Utrecht 2-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht
3-2
AWAY Willem II
1.33 xG 0.49
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
328 Passes 276
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Utrecht vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht squeezed past Willem II 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Utrecht as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Utrecht had 54% of the ball to Willem II's 46%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.33 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Utrecht and 1.17 for Willem II.

What was the final score of Utrecht vs Willem II?

Utrecht 3-2 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Utrecht 55%, draw 24%, Willem II 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utrecht), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Utrecht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
21 Sep 2024
19:45 RKC Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam Analysis →
21:00 Go Ahead Eagles vs Ajax Analysis →
22:00 NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles Analysis →