Go Ahead Eagles 1-1 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.69
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
48%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.21
Over 2.5
58%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.46
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
27%
2.92
6+ Goals
12%
8.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.09
1/2
6%
21.3
1/X
11%
14.1
X/1
12%
8.79
X/2
17%
4.33
X/X
5%
5.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.28
2/X
6%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
24%
+6.3pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.0pp
48%
Away Win
52%
-4.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.2pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Go Ahead Eagles EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 56%
-15% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
1.66/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.16/1.64
+16% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -34%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
262 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 424 · 82%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.7
21.3 Crosses 20.2
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Go Ahead Eagles
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Ajax
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.03 xG 1.73
31% Ball Possession 69%
8 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
215 Passes 600
69% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 58
14 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 1
04.04.2024 Ajax Ajax 1-1 HT 1-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
14.01.2024 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 2-3 HT 1-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
02.04.2023 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
01.10.2022 Ajax Ajax 1-1 HT 1-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
27.02.2022 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles 2-1 HT 2-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
07.11.2021 Ajax Ajax 0-0 HT 0-0 Go Ahead Eagles Go Ahead Eagles HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Go Ahead Eagles
1-1
AWAY Ajax
0.80 xG 0.51
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
323 Passes 446
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Go Ahead Eagles vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Go Ahead Eagles and Ajax shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Go Ahead Eagles had 43% of the ball to Ajax's 57%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.80 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Go Ahead Eagles and 1.00 for Ajax.

What was the final score of Go Ahead Eagles vs Ajax?

Go Ahead Eagles 1-1 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Go Ahead Eagles vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Go Ahead Eagles 30%, draw 22%, Ajax 48%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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