RKC Waalwijk 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
40%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.41
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
28%
2.94
6+ Goals
11%
8.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.9
1/2
7%
21.45
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1 EV+ ✗
15%
8.53
X/2
18%
4.36
X/X
12%
5.62
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.33
2/X
7%
13.65
Value flag · X/1 at 8.53 — our 15% vs market 8.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
25%
+8.8pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
40%
Away Win
51%
-11.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.8pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 56%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.32/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.15
+3% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +92%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
283 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 79%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
19.1 Crosses 15.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.81 xG 1.16
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
336 Passes 418
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.01.2024 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-1 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
28.10.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
05.08.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HAZ
24.01.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 0-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
02.10.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-2 HT 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
23.12.2021 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
1-2
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
2.39 xG 1.15
43% Ball Possession 57%
27 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
288 Passes 422
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
36 Box Touches 23
30 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Rotterdam edged past RKC Waalwijk 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (34% / 26% / 40%) promised a tight game; Sparta Rotterdam found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 43% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 57%, shots finished 27-14, expected goals 2.39 to 1.15 — on chances, RKC Waalwijk could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Rotterdam led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 1.17 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?

RKC Waalwijk 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sparta Rotterdam win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 34%, draw 26%, Sparta Rotterdam 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sparta Rotterdam) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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