NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.14
2-3 Goals
45%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
3.04
6+ Goals
10%
9.56
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.08
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.65
X/1
20%
4.03
X/2
8%
10.05
X/X
12%
5.68
2/1
6%
21.45
2/2
10%
7.34
2/X
5%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.0pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 23%
-8% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.80/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.86
-8% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
25.3 Crosses 14.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Heracles
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.66 xG 0.75
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
429 Passes 341
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-1 HT 0-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
18.08.2023 Heracles Heracles 2-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
29.07.2022 Heracles Heracles 1-3 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HAZ
15.01.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
29.08.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
24.07.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
1-2
AWAY Heracles
1.68 xG 2.03
65% Ball Possession 35%
21 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
452 Passes 205
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
21 Box Touches 16
37 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heracles nicked a narrow win over NEC Nijmegen 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was NEC Nijmegen at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 65% of the ball to Heracles's 35%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 1.68 to 2.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NEC Nijmegen had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.67 for Heracles.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?

NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 50%, draw 26%, Heracles 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
21 Sep 2024
17:30 Utrecht vs Willem II Analysis →
19:45 RKC Waalwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam Analysis →
21:00 Go Ahead Eagles vs Ajax Analysis →