Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-2 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 21 Sep 2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok
3-2 HT 1-1
Lechia Gdansk
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.76
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.49
No
47%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.45
2-3 Goals
39%
2.0
4-5 Goals
26%
2.67
6+ Goals
13%
6.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.27
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1 EV+ ✓
24%
4.6
X/2
10%
8.96
X/X
5%
5.95
2/1
9%
20.5
2/2
12%
5.75
2/X
10%
13.25
Value flag · X/1 at 4.6 — our 24% vs market 16.9%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
52%
-0.1pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.3pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
-10.2pp
47%
BTTS No
37%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Lechia Gdansk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 28%
-8% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -4%
1.93/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.64
+3% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
23.5 Crosses 20.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lechia Gdansk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.83 xG 1.58
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
257 Passes 364
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
10.04.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
17.09.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-2 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
11.12.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-2 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
21.09.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 HT 0-2 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POLK
24.07.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
16.05.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL

Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-2 Lechia Gdansk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
3-2
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.22 xG 1.88
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
372 Passes 342
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
36 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok squeezed past Lechia Gdansk 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 52% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 48%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 2.22 to 1.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.33 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lechia Gdansk?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-2 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 52%, draw 22%, Lechia Gdansk 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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