Puszcza Niepolomice 1-2 Cracovia Krakow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 21 Sep 2024

Puszcza Niepolomice
1-2 HT 1-1
Cracovia Krakow
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Puszcza Niepolomice vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
23%
3.75
6+ Goals
11%
15.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.75 — our 23% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.06
1/2
9%
26.0
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.8
X/1
15%
6.8
X/2
15%
4.58
X/X
6%
4.52
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.91
2/X
8%
13.45
Value flag · 1/X at 13.8 — our 12% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
28%
+5.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-5.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puszcza Niepolomice v Cracovia Krakow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 49%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -30%
1.06/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.15
+11% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -20%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
268 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 80%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
14.6 Crosses 22.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Puszcza Niepolomice vs Cracovia Krakow Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.58 xG 0.56
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
165 Passes 350
62% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 23
5 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.04.2024 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 0-1 HT 0-1 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
21.10.2023 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 HT 1-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
13.01.2018 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 0-2 HT 0-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow HAZ

Puszcza Niepolomice 1-2 Cracovia Krakow — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
1-2
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
0.63 xG 1.17
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
178 Passes 324
68% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 11
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Puszcza Niepolomice vs Cracovia Krakow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cracovia Krakow squeezed past Puszcza Niepolomice 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 40% — and on the day Cracovia Krakow made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Puszcza Niepolomice had 41% of the ball to Cracovia Krakow's 59%, shots finished 13-22, expected goals 0.63 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Puszcza Niepolomice and 1.00 for Cracovia Krakow.

What was the final score of Puszcza Niepolomice vs Cracovia Krakow?

Puszcza Niepolomice 1-2 Cracovia Krakow in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puszcza Niepolomice vs Cracovia Krakow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cracovia Krakow win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Puszcza Niepolomice 34%, draw 27%, Cracovia Krakow 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cracovia Krakow), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cracovia Krakow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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