Santa Clara 1-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.64
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.45
6+ Goals
9%
23.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.26
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
11%
15.7
X/1
16%
3.76
X/2
11%
9.52
X/X
8%
4.32
2/1
11%
27.5
2/2
10%
8.23
2/X
9%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-8.6pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.0pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Clara EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.95/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/0.88
-3% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +94%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 73%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
19.8 Crosses 16.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santa Clara
1-0
AWAY Estrela
1.73 xG 0.40
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
206 Passes 289
69% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 10
9 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Santa Clara vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Clara squeezed past Estrela 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Santa Clara as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Santa Clara had 43% of the ball to Estrela's 57%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 1.73 to 0.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Santa Clara's control.

What was the final score of Santa Clara vs Estrela?

Santa Clara 1-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Clara vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santa Clara win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Santa Clara 46%, draw 28%, Estrela 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santa Clara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Santa Clara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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