Vitoria Guimaraes 0-3 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.69
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
44%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.67
Over 2.5
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.71
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.31
6+ Goals
10%
21.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.37
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
9%
14.6
X/1
14%
7.87
X/2
13%
4.21
X/X
10%
4.12
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.63
2/X
5%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
24%
+8.3pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.1pp
44%
Away Win
48%
-4.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.3pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 52%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
1.48/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.18
+21% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.5
20.2 Crosses 15.7
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Porto
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.10 xG 1.49
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
210 Passes 416
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 33
11 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 2
17.04.2024 Porto Porto 3-1 HT 2-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POK
07.04.2024 Porto Porto 1-2 HT 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
03.04.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POK
11.11.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POR
27.05.2023 Porto Porto 3-0 HT 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.01.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
0-3
AWAY Porto
0.23 xG 1.79
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
314 Passes 368
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto swept aside Vitoria Guimaraes 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 47% of the ball to Porto's 53%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.23 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.83 for Porto.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto?

Vitoria Guimaraes 0-3 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 32%, draw 24%, Porto 44%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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