Ilirija 1-0 Tolmin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 2.SNL, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-6.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.1pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilirija EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Tolmin EU Bookmakers 29%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.40/1.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.62
-12% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilirija
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Tolmin
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
21.10.2023 Tolmin Tolmin 3-2 HT 2-2 Ilirija Ilirija SLVN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilirija
1-0
AWAY Tolmin
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ilirija vs Tolmin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilirija edged past Tolmin 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ilirija as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Ilirija had 42% of the ball to Tolmin's 58%, shots finished 7-6.

What was the final score of Ilirija vs Tolmin?

Ilirija 1-0 Tolmin in the Slovenia - 2.SNL on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilirija vs Tolmin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilirija win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Ilirija 42%, draw 27%, Tolmin 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilirija), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ilirija) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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