Al Raed 1-2 Al Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒18:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
35%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.74
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.26
6+ Goals
12%
21.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 31% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
18%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-3.8pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.6pp
35%
Away Win
28%
+6.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Raed EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Riyadh EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.54/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.82
+16% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -31%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
336 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 77%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
17.6 Crosses 16.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Raed
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Al Riyadh
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.55 xG 0.78
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
310 Passes 371
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 13
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.02.2024 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh 1-1 HT 0-1 Al Raed Al Raed SUUD
28.08.2023 Al Raed Al Raed 3-0 HT 2-0 Al Riyadh Al Riyadh SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Raed
1-2
AWAY Al Riyadh
0.48 xG 1.83
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 9
259 Passes 386
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Raed vs Al Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Riyadh nicked a narrow win over Al Raed 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 35% — and on the day Al Riyadh made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Al Raed had 42% of the ball to Al Riyadh's 58%, shots finished 9-18, expected goals 0.48 to 1.83 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Riyadh's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Al Raed had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Al Raed and 0.50 for Al Riyadh.

What was the final score of Al Raed vs Al Riyadh?

Al Raed 1-2 Al Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Raed vs Al Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Raed win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Al Raed 40%, draw 25%, Al Riyadh 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Raed) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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