St. Pauli II 1-3 Weiche Flensburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
31%
3.72
Away
37%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
Over 2.5
63%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.43
No
38%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.4pp
31%
Draw
23%
+7.5pp
37%
Away Win
45%
-7.9pp
62%
BTTS Yes
66%
-3.2pp
38%
BTTS No
34%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli II EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Weiche Flensburg EU Bookmakers 49%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -16%
1.47/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.35
+8% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
351 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli II
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Weiche Flensburg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 23
4 Shots on Target 14
4 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 3
20.10.2024 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 2-2 Weiche Flensburg Weiche Flensburg ALMBÖL
17.03.2024 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 0-0 HT 0-0 Weiche Flensburg Weiche Flensburg ALMBÖL
23.09.2023 Weiche Flensburg Weiche Flensburg 0-5 HT 0-1 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
06.04.2023 Weiche Flensburg Weiche Flensburg 0-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
11.09.2022 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II 1-4 HT 0-1 Weiche Flensburg Weiche Flensburg ALMBÖL
23.02.2022 Weiche Flensburg Weiche Flensburg 3-3 HT 2-3 St. Pauli II St. Pauli II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH St. Pauli II vs Weiche Flensburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Weiche Flensburg beat St. Pauli II 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 31% / 37% — and on the day Weiche Flensburg made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli II had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for St. Pauli II and 1.50 for Weiche Flensburg.

What was the final score of St. Pauli II vs Weiche Flensburg?

St. Pauli II 1-3 Weiche Flensburg in the Germany - Regional League on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli II vs Weiche Flensburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Weiche Flensburg win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli II 32%, draw 31%, Weiche Flensburg 37%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Weiche Flensburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Weiche Flensburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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