Independiente 1-1 San Lorenzo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
38%
2.77
Away
21%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
71%
1.33
Over 2.5
29%
3.14
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.6
No
66%
1.43
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
47%
1.71
2-3 Goals
33%
1.87
4-5 Goals
13%
7.97
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.1
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.35
X/1
13%
4.17
X/2
9%
7.1
X/X
25%
3.02
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
7%
6.8
2/X
7%
17.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-2.7pp
38%
Draw
32%
+5.4pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-2.7pp
71%
Under 2.5
72%
-0.3pp
29%
Over 2.5
28%
+0.3pp
34%
BTTS Yes
34%
-0.7pp
66%
BTTS No
66%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY San Lorenzo EU Bookmakers 27%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +23%
1.31/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/0.94
-1% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +45%
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 70%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
19.7 Crosses 15.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente
2W-4D-0L
AWAY San Lorenzo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.12 xG 1.21
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
266 Passes 323
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 3
08.03.2025 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-2 HT 1-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
04.08.2024 Independiente Independiente 0-0 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
02.04.2023 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
04.06.2022 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 1-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
06.12.2021 Independiente Independiente 1-1 HT 0-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
04.11.2019 Independiente Independiente 2-1 HT 1-0 San Lorenzo San Lorenzo ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente
1-1
AWAY San Lorenzo
0.11 xG 0.60
61% Ball Possession 39%
4 Total Shots 6
0 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 3
269 Passes 143
71% Pass Accuracy 61%
11 Box Touches 9
9 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Independiente vs San Lorenzo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente and San Lorenzo couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 41% / 38% / 21% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (71%) landed while no to both teams scoring (66%) missed.

On the day, Independiente had 61% of the ball to San Lorenzo's 39%, shots finished 4-6, expected goals 0.11 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Independiente and 0.67 for San Lorenzo.

What was the final score of Independiente vs San Lorenzo?

Independiente 1-1 San Lorenzo in the Argentina - Premier League on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente vs San Lorenzo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Independiente 41%, draw 38%, San Lorenzo 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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