Auxerre 1-0 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 21 Sep 2025

Auxerre
1 - 0 HT 1 - 0
Toulouse
📅21/09/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Auxerre vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.99
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.74
Over
45%
1.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.8
2-3
48%
1.73
4-5
19%
3.82
6+
4%
17.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.0
1/2
2%
27.5
1/X
5%
13.25
X/1
11%
6.71
X/2
15%
4.92
X/X
21%
4.17
2/1
2%
34.5
2/2
24%
3.08
2/X
5%
12.6
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Auxerre v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Auxerre The Market 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse The Market 46%
Great Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Strong
1.33 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.69
1.01 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 0.73
Strong Attack Strength Great
Strong Defense Strength Great
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 81%
21 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1

Auxerre vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Toulouse
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.59 xG 1.86
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
300 Passes 370
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.02.2025 Auxerre Auxerre 2-2 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
01.12.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 2-0 HT 2-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
27.05.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 1-1 HT 1-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
11.01.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 0-5 HT 0-3 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
19.03.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-2 HT 0-2 Toulouse Toulouse FR2
16.10.2021 Toulouse Toulouse 6-0 HT 3-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2

Auxerre 1-0 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
1 - 0
AWAY Toulouse
0.67 xG 2.33
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
231 Passes 392
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 6
REVIEW Auxerre vs Toulouse
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Auxerre shaded a tight game against Toulouse 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Toulouse at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals call finished the job: under 2.5 goals (55%) landed.

On the day, Toulouse saw more of the ball, 60% to 40%, shots finished 6-13, expected goals 0.67 to 2.33 — by the quality of chances, Toulouse deserved more.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toulouse led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.67 a game for Auxerre against 3.00 for Toulouse.

Auxerre vs Toulouse Result & Final Score

Auxerre 1 - 0 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Auxerre vs Toulouse Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 27%, draw 31%, Toulouse 42%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Toulouse), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toulouse) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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