AGF Aarhus 1-0 Brondby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 21 Oct 2024

AGF Aarhus
1-0 HT 1-0
Brondby
📅21/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Denmark - Süperlig – 2024/2025

AGF Aarhus vs Brondby Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.38
Draw
21%
3.28
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
15.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.59
1/2
5%
30.0
1/X
5%
13.25
X/1
15%
5.3
X/2
14%
5.62
X/X
12%
4.51
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
28.5
2/2
12%
3.9
2/X
5%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 6% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
38%
+9.1pp
21%
Draw
27%
-5.9pp
31%
Away Win
35%
-3.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.2pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AGF Aarhus v Brondby — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Brondby EU Bookmakers 38%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.57/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.56
+14% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
22.8 Crosses 15.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

AGF Aarhus vs Brondby Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Brondby
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.29 xG 1.14
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
299 Passes 455
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.08.2024 Brondby Brondby 0-1 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
26.05.2024 Brondby Brondby 2-3 HT 1-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
14.04.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-2 HT 1-1 Brondby Brondby DAN
10.12.2023 Brondby Brondby 2-1 HT 2-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAK
07.12.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-0 HT 1-0 Brondby Brondby DAK
06.11.2023 Brondby Brondby 1-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN

AGF Aarhus 1-0 Brondby — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
1-0
AWAY Brondby
1.49 xG 0.98
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 4
310 Passes 469
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Brondby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus squeezed past Brondby 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AGF Aarhus as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 41% of the ball to Brondby's 59%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.49 to 0.98.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AGF Aarhus had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for AGF Aarhus and 1.17 for Brondby.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Brondby?

AGF Aarhus 1-0 Brondby in the Denmark - Süperlig on 21/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Brondby?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 47%, draw 21%, Brondby 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AGF Aarhus) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✗ Over 2.5
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