BUL 1-1 Express — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 21 Nov 2024

BUL
1-1 HT 1-0
Express
📅21/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.82
Over 2.5
40%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
52%
-10.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.1pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
51%
+9.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
49%
-9.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.7pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BUL EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Express EU Bookmakers 26%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.76/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/0.87
+28% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +29%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BUL
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Express
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 2
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2024 BUL BUL 2-0 HT 1-0 Express Express UGA
26.10.2021 BUL BUL 0-1 HT 0-0 Express Express UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BUL
1-1
AWAY Express
56% Ball Possession 44%
6 Total Shots 5
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH BUL vs Express
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BUL and Express couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was BUL at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, BUL had 56% of the ball to Express's 44%, shots finished 6-5.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for BUL and 0.50 for Express.

What was the final score of BUL vs Express?

BUL 1-1 Express in the Uganda - Premier League on 21/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BUL vs Express?

Before kick-off our model rated a BUL win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split BUL 41%, draw 29%, Express 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (BUL), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BUL) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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