Sporting Gijon 1-3 Malaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.51
Over 2.5
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.18
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
17%
5.29
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.46
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.2
X/1
24%
3.8
X/2
9%
9.2
X/X
16%
3.83
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
8%
8.37
2/X
6%
17.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-2.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.9pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.3pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Malaga EU Bookmakers 22%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
1.41/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.33
-9% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +20%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 72%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
21.9 Crosses 16.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Gijon
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Malaga
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.24 xG 0.83
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
350 Passes 287
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
29.01.2023 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 0-0 HT 0-0 Malaga Malaga İS2
06.11.2022 Malaga Malaga 1-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
09.01.2022 Malaga Malaga 2-2 HT 1-2 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
26.09.2021 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 2-1 HT 0-1 Malaga Malaga İS2
14.02.2021 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 1-0 HT 0-0 Malaga Malaga İS2
22.10.2020 Malaga Malaga 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Gijon
1-3
AWAY Malaga
2.46 xG 0.40
55% Ball Possession 45%
23 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
337 Passes 276
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
44 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Gijon vs Malaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malaga beat Sporting Gijon 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Gijon at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting Gijon had 55% of the ball to Malaga's 45%, shots finished 23-7, expected goals 2.46 to 0.40 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sporting Gijon.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Gijon had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sporting Gijon and 0.83 for Malaga.

What was the final score of Sporting Gijon vs Malaga?

Sporting Gijon 1-3 Malaga in the Spain - 2nd Division on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Gijon vs Malaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Gijon win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sporting Gijon 50%, draw 27%, Malaga 23%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Gijon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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