Paderborn 1-2 Karlsruher SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 21 Dec 2024

📅21/12/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.44
2-3 Goals
36%
1.87
4-5 Goals
28%
2.8
6+ Goals
14%
7.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.88
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
8%
12.55
X/1
17%
5.13
X/2
13%
7.06
X/X
10%
5.4
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
23.0
2/2
13%
4.51
2/X
8%
12.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-3.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.7pp
45%
BTTS No
38%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Karlsruher SC EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -17%
1.97/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.56
+9% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
367 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 72%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
19.4 Crosses 20.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Karlsruher SC
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.90 xG 1.52
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
378 Passes 329
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 3
13.04.2024 Paderborn Paderborn 1-1 HT 1-1 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
05.11.2023 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 0-3 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
27.01.2023 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 0-1 HT 0-0 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
17.07.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 5-0 HT 0-0 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
10.04.2022 Paderborn Paderborn 2-2 HT 1-1 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC AL2
31.10.2021 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 2-4 HT 0-4 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
1-2
AWAY Karlsruher SC
1.94 xG 2.89
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 2
419 Passes 209
86% Pass Accuracy 69%
27 Box Touches 16
43 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Karlsruher SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karlsruher SC edged past Paderborn 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Paderborn at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paderborn had 62% of the ball to Karlsruher SC's 38%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.94 to 2.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paderborn had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Paderborn and 0.83 for Karlsruher SC.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Karlsruher SC?

Paderborn 1-2 Karlsruher SC in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Karlsruher SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 42%, draw 25%, Karlsruher SC 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paderborn) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paderborn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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