Erzgebirge Aue 3-1 1860 München — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 21 Dec 2024

Erzgebirge Aue
3-1 HT 1-1
1860 München
📅21/12/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2024/2025

Erzgebirge Aue vs 1860 München Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
40%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.23
6+ Goals
10%
10.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.24
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
29.5
1/X
6%
13.2
X/1
14%
5.21
X/2
10%
6.19
X/X
11%
5.12
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
20%
4.11
2/X
7%
13.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.5 — our 10% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
40%
Away Win
33%
+7.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.9pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erzgebirge Aue v 1860 München — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY 1860 München EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -8%
1.42/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.19
-8% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
443 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
17.4 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Erzgebirge Aue vs 1860 München Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2W-1D-3L
AWAY 1860 München
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
389 Passes 302
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.02.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-0 HT 0-0 1860 München 1860 München AL3
02.09.2023 1860 München 1860 München 1-2 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
18.03.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-3 HT 0-2 1860 München 1860 München AL3
16.09.2022 1860 München 1860 München 3-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
09.04.2017 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 3-0 HT 1-0 1860 München 1860 München AL2
28.10.2016 1860 München 1860 München 6-2 HT 3-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2

Erzgebirge Aue 3-1 1860 München — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
3-1
AWAY 1860 München
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
285 Passes 295
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs 1860 München
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue saw off 1860 München 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 40%) promised a tight game; Erzgebirge Aue found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 49% of the ball to 1860 München's 51%, shots finished 11-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, 1860 München led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 2.17 for 1860 München.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs 1860 München?

Erzgebirge Aue 3-1 1860 München in the Germany - 3rd Division on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs 1860 München?

Before kick-off our model rated an 1860 München win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 36%, draw 24%, 1860 München 40%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (1860 München) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (1860 München) ✓ Over 2.5
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