HNK Gorica 1-4 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 21 Dec 2024

HNK Gorica
1-4 HT 1-1
Lokomotiva Zagreb
📅21/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2024/2025

HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
39%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.99
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
23%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
14.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 28% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+1.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
40%
Away Win
41%
-1.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.3pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

HNK Gorica v Lokomotiva Zagreb — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 45%
+13% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +9%
1.15/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.02
+36% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +27%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
263 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 75%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
17.5 Crosses 20.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9

HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.07 xG 1.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
275 Passes 362
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.10.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
06.04.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
28.01.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
08.10.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
01.05.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
25.02.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR

HNK Gorica 1-4 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
1-4
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.20 xG 0.58
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
190 Passes 215
67% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb swept aside HNK Gorica 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 40%) promised a tight game; Lokomotiva Zagreb found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 47% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 53%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.20 to 0.58 — on chances, HNK Gorica could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiva Zagreb led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.33 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

HNK Gorica 1-4 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 21/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiva Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 33%, draw 28%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 40%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) ✗ BTTS No
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