Plymouth Argyle 0-5 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 22 Jan 2025

Plymouth Argyle
0-5 HT 0-5
Burnley
📅22/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Plymouth Argyle vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.71
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
57%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.06
No
60%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.7
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
15%
4.03
6+ Goals
9%
19.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.7 — our 33% vs market 30.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
9.37
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
5%
18.05
X/1
8%
10.5
X/2
13%
3.89
X/X
11%
4.69
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
36%
2.08
2/X
5%
15.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
18%
+3.5pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.4pp
57%
Away Win
57%
-0.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.3pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.7pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Plymouth Argyle v Burnley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 61%
+14% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.12/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/0.72
+79% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +45%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
273 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 81%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.8
15.8 Crosses 25.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5

Plymouth Argyle vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Plymouth Argyle
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Burnley
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.56 xG 1.38
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
426 Passes 394
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 35
10 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.10.2024 Burnley Burnley 1-0 HT 1-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
28.08.2012 Burnley Burnley 1-1 HT 1-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNLK
21.03.2009 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-2 HT 1-1 Burnley Burnley İNCL
30.08.2008 Burnley Burnley 0-0 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
23.02.2008 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 3-1 HT 2-1 Burnley Burnley İNCL
12.01.2008 Burnley Burnley 1-0 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL

Plymouth Argyle 0-5 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plymouth Argyle
0-5
AWAY Burnley
0.36 xG 2.93
39% Ball Possession 61%
4 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 5
245 Passes 422
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
10 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Plymouth Argyle vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Burnley ran out comfortable winners over Plymouth Argyle 5-0 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Burnley as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (60%) landed while under 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 39% of the ball to Burnley's 61%, shots finished 4-17, expected goals 0.36 to 2.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Plymouth Argyle and 1.00 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Burnley?

Plymouth Argyle 0-5 Burnley in the England - Championship on 22/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Burnley win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 22%, draw 21%, Burnley 57%. The final score 0-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burnley), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Burnley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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