Burnley vs Plymouth Argyle Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Burnley v Plymouth Argyle — Team-Based Signals
Burnley vs Plymouth Argyle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Burnley 1-0 Plymouth Argyle — Actual Match Statistics
Burnley nicked a narrow win over Plymouth Argyle 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Burnley as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 46%, coin-flips both. At 1.59 (~63%), the over-2.5 price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.
Under the surface, Burnley had 49% of the ball to Plymouth Argyle's 51%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 1.38 to 0.56.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Burnley and 0.83 for Plymouth Argyle.
Burnley vs Plymouth Argyle Result & Final Score
Burnley 1-0 Plymouth Argyle in the England - Championship on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Burnley vs Plymouth Argyle Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Burnley win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Burnley 57%, draw 26%, Plymouth Argyle 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Burnley), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.