Cardiff City 1-0 Millwall — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 1 Oct 2024

📅01/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.38
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
5.05
6+ Goals
9%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.85
1/2
14%
32.0
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
13%
5.96
X/2
12%
4.55
X/X
16%
3.88
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
16%
3.34
2/X
6%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-1.6pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.2pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+1.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.3pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Millwall EU Bookmakers 45%
-11% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -5%
0.83/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.21
-33% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +24%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
263 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 76%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
18.0 Crosses 16.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff City
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Millwall
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.42 xG 1.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
297 Passes 259
70% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Millwall Millwall 3-1 HT 2-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
09.12.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
21.01.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 0-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
03.09.2022 Millwall Millwall 2-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
12.02.2022 Millwall Millwall 2-1 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
21.08.2021 Cardiff City Cardiff City 3-1 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cardiff City
1-0
AWAY Millwall
0.81 xG 1.27
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
236 Passes 236
74% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cardiff City vs Millwall
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cardiff City squeezed past Millwall 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Millwall at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Cardiff City had 49% of the ball to Millwall's 51%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.81 to 1.27 — the balance of chances actually favoured Millwall.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cardiff City and 1.50 for Millwall.

What was the final score of Cardiff City vs Millwall?

Cardiff City 1-0 Millwall in the England - Championship on 01/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff City vs Millwall?

Before kick-off our model rated an Millwall win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cardiff City 29%, draw 29%, Millwall 42%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Millwall) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Millwall) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
1 Oct 2024
21:45 Coventry vs Blackburn Rovers Analysis →
21:45 Sunderland vs Derby County Analysis →
21:45 Norwich City vs Leeds United Analysis →
21:45 Queens Park Rangers vs Hull City Analysis →
21:45 Luton Town vs Oxford United Analysis →
21:45 Burnley vs Plymouth Argyle Analysis →