Millwall 3-1 Cardiff City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
32%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.48
Over 2.5
38%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.19
No
59%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.18
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
16%
5.75
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.8
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.5
X/1
11%
4.0
X/2
11%
7.42
X/X
14%
3.65
2/1
8%
32.5
2/2
13%
6.6
2/X
6%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
47%
-9.1pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.3pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+7.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.4pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +31%
1.23/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.27
-11% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
296 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 74%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
22.9 Crosses 15.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cardiff City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.20 xG 1.76
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
264 Passes 286
68% Pass Accuracy 69%
19 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
21.01.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 0-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
03.09.2022 Millwall Millwall 2-0 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
12.02.2022 Millwall Millwall 2-1 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
21.08.2021 Cardiff City Cardiff City 3-1 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
30.01.2021 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
3-1
AWAY Cardiff City
1.37 xG 0.39
38% Ball Possession 62%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
200 Passes 414
66% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 8
19 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Cardiff City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall got the better of Cardiff City 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and on the day Millwall made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Millwall had 38% of the ball to Cardiff City's 62%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.37 to 0.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Millwall and 1.00 for Cardiff City.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Cardiff City?

Millwall 3-1 Cardiff City in the England - Championship on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Cardiff City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millwall win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Millwall 38%, draw 30%, Cardiff City 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Millwall) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Millwall) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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