Derby County 0-1 Millwall — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 22 Feb 2025

Derby County
0-1 HT 0-0
Millwall
📅22/02/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs Millwall Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
29%
2.83
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.36
Over 2.5
36%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.4
No
61%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
1.84
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
17%
7.06
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.77
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.65
X/1
11%
4.75
X/2
16%
5.81
X/X
17%
3.2
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
13%
5.1
2/X
5%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-2.2pp
29%
Draw
32%
-2.6pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.9pp
64%
Under 2.5
70%
-5.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
30%
+5.8pp
39%
BTTS Yes
38%
+1.8pp
61%
BTTS No
62%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Millwall — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Millwall EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.38/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.25
-19% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +27%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
263 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 75%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
20.7 Crosses 16.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Derby County vs Millwall Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Millwall
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.07 xG 1.03
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
376 Passes 218
77% Pass Accuracy 68%
21 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.10.2024 Millwall Millwall 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
23.02.2022 Derby County Derby County 1-2 HT 0-2 Millwall Millwall İNCL
06.11.2021 Millwall Millwall 1-1 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
13.03.2021 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
05.12.2020 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
20.06.2020 Millwall Millwall 2-3 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Derby County 0-1 Millwall — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
0-1
AWAY Millwall
0.41 xG 2.40
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 11
0 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
235 Passes 225
67% Pass Accuracy 65%
15 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Millwall
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall squeezed past Derby County 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 35% — and on the day Millwall made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Derby County had 51% of the ball to Millwall's 49%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.41 to 2.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Millwall's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Derby County and 1.17 for Millwall.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Millwall?

Derby County 0-1 Millwall in the England - Championship on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Millwall?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Derby County 36%, draw 29%, Millwall 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Derby County) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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