Millwall 1-1 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 19 Oct 2024

Millwall
1-1
Derby County
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Millwall vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.56
Over 2.5
41%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.41
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
4.97
6+ Goals
8%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.74
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.5
X/1
18%
4.13
X/2
12%
7.61
X/X
14%
3.84
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
11%
6.45
2/X
8%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
60%
-1.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
40%
+1.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.5pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Millwall v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 27%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -29%
1.31/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.41
-5% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
306 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 74%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
23.5 Crosses 17.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Millwall vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Derby County
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.98 xG 1.06
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
215 Passes 415
67% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.02.2022 Derby County Derby County 1-2 HT 0-2 Millwall Millwall İNCL
06.11.2021 Millwall Millwall 1-1 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
13.03.2021 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
05.12.2020 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
20.06.2020 Millwall Millwall 2-3 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
14.12.2019 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL

Millwall 1-1 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
1-1
AWAY Derby County
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 5
189 Passes 148
65% Pass Accuracy 61%
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall and Derby County shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Millwall at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Millwall had 54% of the ball to Derby County's 46%, shots finished 16-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Millwall and 1.00 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Derby County?

Millwall 1-1 Derby County in the England - Championship on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millwall win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Millwall 43%, draw 28%, Derby County 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Millwall), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Millwall) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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