Paksi SE 4-3 Debrecen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 22 Feb 2025

Paksi SE
4-3 HT 2-0
Debrecen
📅22/02/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Hungary - NB I – 2024/2025

Paksi SE vs Debrecen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.43
Over 2.5
53%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.92
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.59
6+ Goals
12%
6.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
50%
-8.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.3pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paksi SE v Debrecen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paksi SE EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Debrecen EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.85/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.66
+19% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
293 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
32.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
30.2 Crosses 18.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Paksi SE vs Debrecen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paksi SE
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Debrecen
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.37 xG 1.40
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
229 Passes 293
65% Pass Accuracy 70%
26 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.10.2024 Debrecen Debrecen 0-5 HT 0-3 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
10.03.2024 Paksi SE Paksi SE 1-1 HT 0-1 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
12.11.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 1-0 HT 1-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
27.09.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 2-0 HT 1-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
06.05.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 0-0 HT 0-0 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
11.02.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 2-1 HT 0-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC

Paksi SE 4-3 Debrecen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paksi SE
4-3
AWAY Debrecen
2.11 xG 2.19
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
247 Passes 302
71% Pass Accuracy 74%
35 Box Touches 26
34 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Paksi SE vs Debrecen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paksi SE nicked a narrow win over Debrecen 4-3. Half-time: 2-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Paksi SE as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Paksi SE had 46% of the ball to Debrecen's 54%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 2.11 to 2.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Paksi SE and 0.67 for Debrecen.

What was the final score of Paksi SE vs Debrecen?

Paksi SE 4-3 Debrecen in the Hungary - NB I on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paksi SE vs Debrecen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paksi SE win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Paksi SE 41%, draw 27%, Debrecen 32%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paksi SE), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paksi SE) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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