Necaxa 3-1 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 22 Feb 2025

📅22/02/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.7
No
55%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.99
2-3 Goals
45%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
2.86
6+ Goals
8%
8.58
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.99 — our 28% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
59%
-5.6pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.1pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
55%
-10.1pp
55%
BTTS No
45%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 22%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / +2%
2.48/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.62
+4% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
315 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 78%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
23.8 Crosses 14.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Mazatlan
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.07 xG 0.98
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
245 Passes 362
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.09.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
02.03.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
06.11.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 4-0 HT 2-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
18.03.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-1 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
24.09.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 2-2 HT 1-2 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
02.03.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
3-1
AWAY Mazatlan
2.39 xG 0.28
73% Ball Possession 27%
22 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
504 Passes 141
91% Pass Accuracy 70%
34 Box Touches 5
32 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Necaxa got the better of Mazatlan 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Necaxa as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Necaxa had 73% of the ball to Mazatlan's 27%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 2.39 to 0.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Necaxa had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Necaxa and 0.67 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Mazatlan?

Necaxa 3-1 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 54%, draw 25%, Mazatlan 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Necaxa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Necaxa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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