Puebla 2-0 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 22 Feb 2025

Puebla
2-0 HT 1-0
Tijuana
📅22/02/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Puebla vs Tijuana Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
29%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.88
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
2.91
6+ Goals
11%
9.02
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 26% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
42%
+4.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.1pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-2.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.3pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Tijuana — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.57/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.46
+2% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
336 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
22.5 Crosses 14.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Puebla vs Tijuana Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Tijuana
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.55 xG 1.39
46% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
262 Passes 353
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 2-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
20.04.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 3-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
02.09.2023 Puebla Puebla 3-0 HT 2-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
30.04.2023 Puebla Puebla 5-2 HT 2-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
13.08.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 3-3 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
29.01.2022 Puebla Puebla 3-1 HT 0-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK

Puebla 2-0 Tijuana — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
2-0
AWAY Tijuana
2.19 xG 1.18
33% Ball Possession 67%
15 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
163 Passes 400
68% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puebla got the better of Tijuana 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Puebla as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Puebla had 33% of the ball to Tijuana's 67%, shots finished 15-18, expected goals 2.19 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Puebla and 1.83 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Tijuana?

Puebla 2-0 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 22/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puebla win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Puebla 47%, draw 25%, Tijuana 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Puebla) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Puebla) ✗ Over 2.5
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