Polonia Bytom 1-1 Pogon Siedlce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 22 Feb 2026

📅22/02/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.92
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.21
6+ Goals
10%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 28% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
48%
+0.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.9pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.4pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Polonia Bytom EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -6%
1.67/0.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.42
-2% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Polonia Bytom
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
5 Yellow Cards 3
17.08.2025 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-0 HT 0-0 Polonia Bytom Polonia Bytom POL1
17.03.2024 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 3-3 HT 0-3 Polonia Bytom Polonia Bytom POL2
02.09.2023 Polonia Bytom Polonia Bytom 1-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Polonia Bytom
1-1
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Polonia Bytom vs Pogon Siedlce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonia Bytom and Pogon Siedlce couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Polonia Bytom at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Polonia Bytom had 48% of the ball to Pogon Siedlce's 52%, shots finished 7-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Pogon Siedlce led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Polonia Bytom and 2.00 for Pogon Siedlce.

What was the final score of Polonia Bytom vs Pogon Siedlce?

Polonia Bytom 1-1 Pogon Siedlce in the Poland - 1st Division on 22/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Polonia Bytom vs Pogon Siedlce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Polonia Bytom win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Polonia Bytom 49%, draw 23%, Pogon Siedlce 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Polonia Bytom) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Polonia Bytom) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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