Pogon Siedlce 3-3 Polonia Bytom — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 2nd Division, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.88
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.06
6+ Goals
9%
19.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 29% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-5.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.0pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.2pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonia Bytom EU Bookmakers 30%
-5% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
1.36/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.01
-13% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
358 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Siedlce
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Polonia Bytom
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 4
02.09.2023 Polonia Bytom Polonia Bytom 1-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Siedlce
3-3
AWAY Polonia Bytom
54% Ball Possession 46%
23 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Bytom
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Siedlce and Polonia Bytom couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Pogon Siedlce at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pogon Siedlce had 54% of the ball to Polonia Bytom's 46%, shots finished 23-17.

What was the final score of Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Bytom?

Pogon Siedlce 3-3 Polonia Bytom in the Poland - 2nd Division on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Siedlce vs Polonia Bytom?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Siedlce win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Pogon Siedlce 41%, draw 27%, Polonia Bytom 32%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Siedlce) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL2 More Poland - 2nd Division
17 Mar 2024
16:00 Jastrzebie Zdroj vs Olimpia Elblag Analysis →
16:00 SKRA Czestochowa vs Kotwica Kolobrzeg Analysis →
19:00 Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Stomil Olsztyn Analysis →
21:30 Stal Stalowa Wola vs Kalisz Analysis →