Estoril 3-1 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 22 Feb 2026

📅22/02/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.84
Draw
21%
3.28
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.9
Over 2.5
55%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.68
No
42%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.3
2-3 Goals
45%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.57
1/2
7%
25.0
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
12%
6.54
X/2
13%
5.08
X/X
7%
4.68
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
31.0
2/2
21%
3.09
2/X
6%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 8% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
31%
+6.4pp
21%
Draw
27%
-5.6pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-0.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
49%
-4.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
51%
+4.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.2pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 46%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.51/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/0.82
+46% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / -8%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
282 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 79%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
18.3 Crosses 22.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gil Vicente
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.31 xG 2.11
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
309 Passes 335
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2025 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
01.02.2025 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-2 HT 1-1 Estoril Estoril POR
25.08.2024 Estoril Estoril 0-0 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
18.02.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-3 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
17.09.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 5-3 HT 3-0 Estoril Estoril POR
31.03.2023 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
3-1
AWAY Gil Vicente
2.60 xG 2.62
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 4
245 Passes 282
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estoril beat Gil Vicente 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 21% / 41% — and on the day Estoril made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Estoril had 48% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 52%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 2.60 to 2.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gil Vicente led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Estoril and 1.83 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Gil Vicente?

Estoril 3-1 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 22/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Estoril 38%, draw 21%, Gil Vicente 41%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Gil Vicente) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gil Vicente) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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