Cheltenham Town 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 22 Mar 2025

Cheltenham Town
0-1 HT 0-1
Milton Keynes Dons
📅22/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Cheltenham Town vs Milton Keynes Dons Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 27% vs market 22.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.3
1/2
5%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
18%
5.28
X/2
14%
6.16
X/X
8%
4.9
2/1
8%
25.0
2/2
15%
4.17
2/X
10%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.7pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.9pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+1.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.6pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cheltenham Town v Milton Keynes Dons — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -18%
1.43/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.21
+6% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -26%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
202 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 74%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
19.5 Crosses 15.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Cheltenham Town vs Milton Keynes Dons Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cheltenham Town
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.14 xG 1.20
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
266 Passes 451
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.11.2024 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 3-2 HT 1-2 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
15.04.2023 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-2 HT 1-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
29.10.2022 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
30.08.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-2 HT 1-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İNTK
08.03.2022 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 HT 2-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
04.09.2021 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1

Cheltenham Town 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cheltenham Town
0-1
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
0.46 xG 1.60
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
153 Passes 286
62% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 33
27 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Cheltenham Town vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons edged past Cheltenham Town 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Cheltenham Town at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Cheltenham Town had 40% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 60%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 0.46 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cheltenham Town and 1.67 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Cheltenham Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Cheltenham Town 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cheltenham Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cheltenham Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cheltenham Town 42%, draw 24%, Milton Keynes Dons 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Cheltenham Town), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cheltenham Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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