Milton Keynes Dons 3-2 Cheltenham Town — Result, Stats & Model Review (England - 2nd Division, 16 Nov 2024)

Milton Keynes Dons

3-2 HT 1-2

Cheltenham Town

📅16/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗

England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Milton Keynes Dons vs Cheltenham Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

44%

1.75

Draw

28%

3.54

Away

28%

4.04

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55%

1.91

Over 2.5

45%

1.8

Both Teams to Score

Yes

48%

1.76

52%

1.95

Total Goals

0-1 Goal EV+ ✗

26%

3.5

2-3 Goals

42%

1.82

4-5 Goals

21%

3.48

6+ Goals

11%

13.2

Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 26% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

20%

2.32

1/2

34.5

1/X

10%

14.4

X/1

14%

4.13

X/2

10%

9.02

X/X

12%

5.06

2/1

23.85

2/2

12%

6.91

2/X

15.1

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

✋

Decision

No Bet — Skip This Match

The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

44%

Home Win

53%

-9.5pp

28%

Draw

25%

+2.6pp

28%

Away Win

22%

+6.8pp

55%

Under 2.5

48%

+6.5pp

45%

Over 2.5

52%

-6.5pp

48%

BTTS Yes

53%

-4.8pp

52%

BTTS No

47%

+4.8pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milton Keynes Dons v Cheltenham Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 57%

Head to Head

AWAY Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 25%

+6% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +18%

1.51/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.27

+20% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +17%

56% Ball Possession 44%

14 Total Shots 10

6 Shots on Target 5

7 Corners 4

396 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 71%

23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8

13.9 Crosses 16.0

2.4 Yellow Cards 1.6

Milton Keynes Dons vs Cheltenham Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Milton Keynes Dons

1W-3D-2L

AWAY Cheltenham Town

1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50

1.13 xG 1.18

58% Ball Possession 42%

12 Total Shots 12

4 Shots on Target 4

4 Corners 3

480 Passes 286

84% Pass Accuracy 75%

20 Box Touches 15

13 Crosses 11

2 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

15.04.2023 Milton Keynes Dons

2-2 HT 1-1

Cheltenham Town İN1

29.10.2022 Cheltenham Town

0-0 HT 0-0

Milton Keynes Dons İN1

30.08.2022 Milton Keynes Dons

1-2 HT 1-1

Cheltenham Town İNTK

08.03.2022 Milton Keynes Dons

3-1 HT 2-0

Cheltenham Town İN1

04.09.2021 Cheltenham Town

1-1 HT 1-0

Milton Keynes Dons İN1

26.12.2018 Cheltenham Town

3-1 HT 2-1

Milton Keynes Dons İN2

Milton Keynes Dons 3-2 Cheltenham Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Milton Keynes Dons

3-2

AWAY Cheltenham Town

1.55 xG 0.93

58% Ball Possession 42%

7 Total Shots 12

5 Shots on Target 4

4 Corners 8

305 Passes 170

66% Pass Accuracy 52%

14 Box Touches 22

13 Crosses 13

1 Yellow Cards 0

POST-MATCH Milton Keynes Dons vs Cheltenham Town

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons edged past Cheltenham Town 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Milton Keynes Dons as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Milton Keynes Dons had 58% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 42%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 1.55 to 0.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cheltenham Town led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.50 for Cheltenham Town.

What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs Cheltenham Town?

Milton Keynes Dons 3-2 Cheltenham Town in the England - 2nd Division on 16/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milton Keynes Dons vs Cheltenham Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 44%, draw 28%, Cheltenham Town 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No

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