Accrington Stanley 2-2 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 16 Nov 2024

📅16/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.02
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.96
6+ Goals
11%
17.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.02 — our 28% vs market 27.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.98
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.15
X/1
10%
4.56
X/2
7%
6.65
X/X
8%
4.56
2/1
13%
27.0
2/2
15%
5.05
2/X
10%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
45%
+2.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Accrington Stanley EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -17%
1.62/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.44
+1% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
217 · 61% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 65%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
23.3 Crosses 17.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Accrington Stanley
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Swindon Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.23 xG 1.36
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
219 Passes 288
64% Pass Accuracy 70%
28 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.03.2024 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
28.11.2023 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 3-4 HT 0-2 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
06.03.2021 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 2-1 HT 2-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
17.11.2020 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-3 HT 0-3 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN1
05.05.2018 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-0 HT 2-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
06.02.2018 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 2-1 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Accrington Stanley
2-2
AWAY Swindon Town
1.47 xG 1.23
41% Ball Possession 59%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
133 Passes 251
56% Pass Accuracy 69%
29 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Accrington Stanley vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Accrington Stanley and Swindon Town shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Accrington Stanley at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Accrington Stanley had 41% of the ball to Swindon Town's 59%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 1.47 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Accrington Stanley had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Accrington Stanley and 1.67 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Accrington Stanley vs Swindon Town?

Accrington Stanley 2-2 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 16/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Accrington Stanley vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Accrington Stanley win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Accrington Stanley 47%, draw 25%, Swindon Town 28%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Accrington Stanley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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