Swindon Town 1-2 Accrington Stanley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 12 Mar 2024

Swindon Town
1-2 HT 0-0
Accrington Stanley
📅12/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.45
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.92
6+ Goals
12%
8.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.36
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.45
X/1
14%
4.42
X/2
9%
8.45
X/X
12%
5.58
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.45
2/2
12%
5.8
2/X
10%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.6pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.9pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swindon Town v Accrington Stanley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Accrington Stanley EU Bookmakers 28%
-8% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.45/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.33
+8% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
328 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 67%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
21.8 Crosses 19.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0

Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Accrington Stanley
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.38 xG 2.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
276 Passes 228
70% Pass Accuracy 65%
15 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.11.2023 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 3-4 HT 0-2 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
06.03.2021 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 2-1 HT 2-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
17.11.2020 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-3 HT 0-3 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN1
05.05.2018 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-0 HT 2-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
06.02.2018 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 2-1 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
25.02.2012 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2

Swindon Town 1-2 Accrington Stanley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
1-2
AWAY Accrington Stanley
1.28 xG 2.09
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
323 Passes 190
71% Pass Accuracy 61%
24 Box Touches 27
25 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Accrington Stanley squeezed past Swindon Town 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Swindon Town at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Swindon Town had 59% of the ball to Accrington Stanley's 41%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.28 to 2.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Swindon Town and 1.67 for Accrington Stanley.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley?

Swindon Town 1-2 Accrington Stanley in the England - 2nd Division on 12/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 47%, draw 27%, Accrington Stanley 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Swindon Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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