Grimsby Town 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 12 Mar 2024

📅12/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
40%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.7
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.28
6+ Goals
13%
11.6
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.28 — our 27% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.08
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
5%
13.05
X/1
12%
6.09
X/2
14%
5.18
X/X
16%
4.9
2/1
9%
29.5
2/2
18%
3.25
2/X
7%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
40%
Away Win
40%
+0.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.2pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 43%
-1% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +6%
1.46/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.13
+12% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -12%
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
212 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 78%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
20.5 Crosses 18.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grimsby Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.99 xG 1.62
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
288 Passes 526
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
34 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
28.11.2023 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 HT 0-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
26.01.2019 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
10.11.2018 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 3-1 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons FAK
21.08.2018 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 HT 0-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
30.03.2008 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İNTK
07.03.2008 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grimsby Town
1-0
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.38 xG 0.74
21% Ball Possession 79%
7 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 6
97 Passes 586
54% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 27
7 Crosses 23
5 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Grimsby Town vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grimsby Town squeezed past Milton Keynes Dons 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 40% — and on the day Grimsby Town made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Grimsby Town had 21% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 79%, shots finished 7-6, expected goals 1.38 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Grimsby Town and 1.00 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Grimsby Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Grimsby Town 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 12/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grimsby Town vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Grimsby Town 33%, draw 27%, Milton Keynes Dons 40%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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