Newport County 5-3 Morecambe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 12 Mar 2024

Newport County
5-3 HT 2-1
Morecambe
📅12/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Newport County vs Morecambe Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.78
Over 2.5
50%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.03
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
25%
3.86
6+ Goals
11%
17.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
3.11
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
8%
4.73
X/2
10%
6.35
X/X
8%
4.42
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
15%
4.69
2/X
9%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+0.7pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.9pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.7pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Morecambe — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Morecambe EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
1.43/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.58
+7% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
247 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 62%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
22.4 Crosses 18.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Newport County vs Morecambe Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Morecambe
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.45 xG 1.02
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
261 Passes 181
66% Pass Accuracy 58%
22 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.11.2023 Morecambe Morecambe 1-2 HT 1-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
06.11.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County FAK
31.05.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 1-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
13.03.2021 Morecambe Morecambe 1-3 HT 1-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
05.12.2020 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 1-1 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
07.03.2020 Newport County Newport County 1-0 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2

Newport County 5-3 Morecambe — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
5-3
AWAY Morecambe
1.65 xG 4.20
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 23
9 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 5
256 Passes 201
68% Pass Accuracy 64%
19 Box Touches 42
15 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Morecambe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County saw off Morecambe 5-3. Half-time: 2-1. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Newport County as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Newport County had 54% of the ball to Morecambe's 46%, shots finished 19-23, expected goals 1.65 to 4.20 — on chances, Morecambe could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newport County had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Newport County and 0.83 for Morecambe.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Morecambe?

Newport County 5-3 Morecambe in the England - 2nd Division on 12/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Morecambe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newport County win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Newport County 44%, draw 24%, Morecambe 32%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newport County) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newport County)
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