Crawley Town 2-1 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 12 Mar 2024

Crawley Town
2-1 HT 0-1
Notts County
📅12/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Crawley Town vs Notts County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.41
No
44%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.57
2-3 Goals
39%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.64
6+ Goals
12%
6.32
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.47
1/2
5%
23.6
1/X
5%
12.3
X/1 EV+ ✗
18%
6.08
X/2
14%
5.89
X/X
14%
5.8
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
16%
3.33
2/X
7%
12.25
Value flag · X/1 at 6.08 — our 18% vs market 12.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+2.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-3.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
67%
-10.8pp
44%
BTTS No
33%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Crawley Town v Notts County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 42%
+5% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -3%
1.29/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.18/1.99
+13% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / -38%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
273 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 72%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
16.9 Crosses 23.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6

Crawley Town vs Notts County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Notts County
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.99 xG 2.19
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
401 Passes 323
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.11.2023 Notts County Notts County 3-1 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
04.11.2023 Notts County Notts County 3-2 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town FAK
22.04.2019 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-1 HT 1-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
02.10.2018 Notts County Notts County 3-1 HT 2-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
23.01.2018 Notts County Notts County 1-2 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
16.09.2017 Crawley Town Crawley Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2

Crawley Town 2-1 Notts County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
2-1
AWAY Notts County
2.37 xG 1.73
54% Ball Possession 46%
30 Total Shots 14
14 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 3
338 Passes 293
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
38 Box Touches 22
29 Crosses 11
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crawley Town squeezed past Notts County 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Crawley Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Crawley Town had 54% of the ball to Notts County's 46%, shots finished 30-14, expected goals 2.37 to 1.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Notts County led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Crawley Town and 2.00 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Notts County?

Crawley Town 2-1 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 12/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crawley Town win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 40%, draw 26%, Notts County 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crawley Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Crawley Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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