De Graafschap 0-0 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.61
Over 2.5
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.71
2-3 Goals
36%
2.02
4-5 Goals
28%
2.46
6+ Goals
13%
5.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.68
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.05
X/1
23%
4.2
X/2
6%
13.75
X/X
11%
7.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
18.55
2/2
6%
10.0
2/X
7%
18.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.55 — our 10% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
De Graafschap win — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
65%
-6.2pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.2pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.89/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.74
+3% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
348 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 71%
30.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
24.4 Crosses 14.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
3W-2D-1L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.57 xG 0.71
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
402 Passes 284
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
08.11.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
26.04.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-0 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
24.09.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
05.05.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-1 HT 1-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
06.01.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
18.03.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-3 HT 1-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
0-0
AWAY MVV Maastricht
0.90 xG 0.35
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 3
462 Passes 188
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 12
41 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap and MVV Maastricht fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had De Graafschap at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, De Graafschap had 68% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 32%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 0.90 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for De Graafschap and 1.17 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs MVV Maastricht?

De Graafschap 0-0 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 59%, draw 23%, MVV Maastricht 18%. The final score 0-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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