Tepatitlán de Morelos 4-1 CA La Paz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 22 Mar 2025

📅22/03/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.57
Draw
19%
3.94
Away
18%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.15
Over 2.5
59%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
26%
X/2
6%
X/X
6%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
59%
+4.0pp
19%
Draw
22%
-2.7pp
18%
Away Win
19%
-1.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
43%
-1.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
57%
+1.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 22%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +3%
2.36/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.96
+22% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
365 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
3W-2D-1L
AWAY CA La Paz
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
05.10.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-5 HT 1-2 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
24.01.2024 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
06.10.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 4-0 HT 1-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
15.01.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-0 HT 1-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
09.09.2022 CA La Paz CA La Paz 1-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
07.09.2022 CA La Paz CA La Paz 1-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs CA La Paz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos ran out comfortable winners over CA La Paz 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tepatitlán de Morelos as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 1.00 for CA La Paz.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs CA La Paz?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 4-1 CA La Paz in the Mexico - Primera A on 22/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs CA La Paz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 63%, draw 19%, CA La Paz 18%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✓ Over 2.5
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