Ceara 1-1 Sao Bernardo FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 22 Mar 2026

Ceara
1-1 HT 1-0
Sao Bernardo FC
📅22/03/2026 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2026

Ceara vs Sao Bernardo FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.7
4-5 Goals
19%
3.86
6+ Goals
7%
18.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 33% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
19%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
60%
-7.2pp
29%
Draw
24%
+5.4pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+1.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.6pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ceara v Sao Bernardo FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Bernardo FC EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+16% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 76%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
23.1 Crosses –
2.6 Yellow Cards –

Ceara 1-1 Sao Bernardo FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
1-1
AWAY Sao Bernardo FC
1.77 xG 0.31
52% Ball Possession 48%
21 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
341 Passes 314
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
41 Box Touches 10
26 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Sao Bernardo FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara and Sao Bernardo FC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Ceara at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Ceara had 52% of the ball to Sao Bernardo FC's 48%, shots finished 21-4, expected goals 1.77 to 0.31.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Sao Bernardo FC?

Ceara 1-1 Sao Bernardo FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 22/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Sao Bernardo FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Ceara 53%, draw 29%, Sao Bernardo FC 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ceara), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ceara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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