Brisbane Roar 1-1 Adelaide United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 22 Apr 2025

📅22/04/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
51%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
2.74
Over Pick
58%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.39
No
49%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1
24%
6.25
2-3
40%
2.12
4-5
23%
2.49
6+
13%
5.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.8
1/2
4%
19.8
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
6%
8.01
X/2
18%
5.34
X/X
10%
6.47
2/1
4%
27.5
2/2
29%
2.59
2/X
7%
12.3
Value flag · X/2 at 5.34 — our 18% vs market 14.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
30%
-4.3pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.2pp
51%
Away Win
47%
+4.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
33%
+9.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
67%
-9.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
68%
-16.3pp
49%
BTTS No
32%
+16.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 51%
-10% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.45/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/1.49
-4% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -25%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
317 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 81%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.9
16.8 Crosses 19.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Adelaide United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.84 xG 1.73
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
335 Passes 418
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.03.2025 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
23.11.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-3 HT 2-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
26.04.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 3-4 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
10.12.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 0-2 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
04.02.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-1 HT 1-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
09.12.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-1 HT 0-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
1-1
AWAY Adelaide United
1.22 xG 0.78
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
420 Passes 285
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane Roar and Adelaide United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Adelaide United at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 58% of the ball to Adelaide United's 42%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.22 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Adelaide United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.83 for Adelaide United.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United?

Brisbane Roar 1-1 Adelaide United in the Australia - A-League on 22/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 26%, draw 24%, Adelaide United 51%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Adelaide United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Adelaide United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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