HJK Helsinki 0-1 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 22 Apr 2025

📅22/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.46
2-3 Goals
41%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
3.03
6+ Goals
12%
8.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.77
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
7%
16.65
X/1
19%
4.04
X/2
5%
13.4
X/X
9%
6.63
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
21.1
2/2
9%
10.8
2/X
7%
19.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 13% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
64%
-9.4pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.2pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.3pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 19%
+2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.83/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.74
+7% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
28.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
19.4 Crosses 15.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Gnistan
3.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
1.79 xG 0.96
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
349 Passes 275
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 15
8 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
12.06.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 0-4 HT 0-2 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
22.05.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
03.02.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FLK
26.01.2018 Gnistan Gnistan 0-8 HT 0-3 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
0-1
AWAY Gnistan
0.86 xG 1.21
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
466 Passes 241
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 9
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan nicked a narrow win over HJK Helsinki 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. HJK Helsinki carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 63% of the ball to Gnistan's 37%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 0.86 to 1.21.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 3.75 goals for HJK Helsinki and 0.25 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan?

HJK Helsinki 0-1 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 22/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 55%, draw 23%, Gnistan 22%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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