Gnistan 1-2 HJK Helsinki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - League Cup, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
5.09
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
45%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.67
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 26% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
11.1
1/2
7%
22.15
1/X
6%
19.0
X/1 EV+ ✗
13%
14.05
X/2
20%
3.55
X/X
11%
6.43
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
18%
1.71
2/X
8%
18.35
Value flag · X/1 at 14.05 — our 13% vs market 4.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
16%
+13.9pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.5pp
45%
Away Win
61%
-16.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.7pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 66%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -83%
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
256 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
0W-0D-1L
AWAY HJK Helsinki
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 8.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
3 Total Shots 23
1 Shots on Target 10
0 Corners 7
26.01.2018 Gnistan Gnistan 0-8 HT 0-3 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİK
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki edged past Gnistan 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki?

Gnistan 1-2 HJK Helsinki in the Finland - League Cup on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki?

Before kick-off our model rated an HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 30%, draw 25%, HJK Helsinki 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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