Gnistan 0-4 HJK Helsinki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 12 Jun 2024

📅12/06/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.29
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.09
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.79
6+ Goals
8%
16.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 30% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.47
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
9%
7.14
X/2
16%
4.32
X/X
15%
4.64
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.73
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
27%
+2.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-3.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.5pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 50%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.20/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.19
+0% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
275 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 82%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
9.0 Crosses 19.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
0W-0D-3L
AWAY HJK Helsinki
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
198 Passes 426
66% Pass Accuracy 80%
22.05.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
03.02.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FLK
26.01.2018 Gnistan Gnistan 0-8 HT 0-3 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
0-4
AWAY HJK Helsinki
0.96 xG 1.79
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
352 Passes 272
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki ran out comfortable winners over Gnistan 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Gnistan had 54% of the ball to HJK Helsinki's 46%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.96 to 1.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Gnistan and 3.67 for HJK Helsinki.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki?

Gnistan 0-4 HJK Helsinki in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 12/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki?

Before kick-off our model rated an HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 29%, draw 28%, HJK Helsinki 43%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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