Damac FC 2-3 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 22 Apr 2025

📅22/04/2025 · 🕒19:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.4
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
53%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.07
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
2.9
6+ Goals
11%
8.63
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 24% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
33%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
15%
+8.5pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.1pp
53%
Away Win
66%
-12.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.4pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Damac FC EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 70%
+16% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +17%
0.91/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.20/1.07
+9% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +3%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
244 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 84%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.2
14.0 Crosses 21.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Damac FC
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Al Nassr
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.67 xG 1.86
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
300 Passes 460
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.11.2024 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-0 HT 1-0 Damac FC Damac FC SUUD
05.04.2024 Damac FC Damac FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
21.10.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-1 HT 0-1 Damac FC Damac FC SUUD
25.02.2023 Damac FC Damac FC 0-3 HT 0-3 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
10.09.2022 Al Nassr Al Nassr 2-1 HT 1-0 Damac FC Damac FC SUUD
08.01.2022 Damac FC Damac FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Damac FC
2-3
AWAY Al Nassr
1.44 xG 1.08
34% Ball Possession 66%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
198 Passes 426
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Box Touches 38
11 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Damac FC vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr squeezed past Damac FC 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Nassr as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Damac FC had 34% of the ball to Al Nassr's 66%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.44 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Nassr led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Damac FC and 2.00 for Al Nassr.

What was the final score of Damac FC vs Al Nassr?

Damac FC 2-3 Al Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 22/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Damac FC vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Damac FC 24%, draw 23%, Al Nassr 53%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nassr) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✗ BTTS No
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