Libertad vs Guayaquil City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Libertad v Guayaquil City — Team-Based Signals
Libertad vs Guayaquil City Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Libertad 0-1 Guayaquil City — Actual Match Statistics
Guayaquil City edged past Libertad 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Libertad at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Libertad had 40% of the ball to Guayaquil City's 60%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 0.46 to 1.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Guayaquil City's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Libertad had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Libertad and 0.50 for Guayaquil City.
What was the final score of Libertad vs Guayaquil City?
Libertad 0-1 Guayaquil City in the Ecuador - Premier on 22/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Libertad vs Guayaquil City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Libertad 43%, draw 23%, Guayaquil City 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.