Lugazi Municipal 0-1 SC Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 22 Apr 2026

📅22/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
4.65
Draw
33%
3.28
Away
51%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.54
Over 2.5
38%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.27
No
51%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
5%
X/2
20%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
26%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
19%
-2.5pp
33%
Draw
28%
+5.6pp
51%
Away Win
54%
-3.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
61%
+1.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
39%
-1.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
40%
+8.9pp
51%
BTTS No
60%
-8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugazi Municipal EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY SC Villa EU Bookmakers 57%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.77/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/0.48
-3% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +45%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
257 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugazi Municipal
0W-2D-0L
AWAY SC Villa
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
31.01.2026 SC Villa SC Villa 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugazi Municipal UGA
06.12.2024 SC Villa SC Villa 1-1 HT 1-0 Lugazi Municipal UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugazi Municipal
0-1
AWAY SC Villa
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Lugazi Municipal vs SC Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SC Villa nicked a narrow win over Lugazi Municipal 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had SC Villa as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lugazi Municipal had 50% of the ball to SC Villa's 50%, shots finished 7-5.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lugazi Municipal and 0.50 for SC Villa.

What was the final score of Lugazi Municipal vs SC Villa?

Lugazi Municipal 0-1 SC Villa in the Uganda - Premier League on 22/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugazi Municipal vs SC Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated an SC Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Lugazi Municipal 16%, draw 33%, SC Villa 51%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SC Villa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (SC Villa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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