Texoma 3-2 Charlotte Independence — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 22 Jun 2025

📅22/06/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
28%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
20%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.2pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.9pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Texoma EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlotte Independence EU Bookmakers 49%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
0.75/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.49
+16% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / +17%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
282 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 82%
14.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
13.2 Crosses 14.3
4.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Texoma
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Charlotte Independence
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
1.05 xG 3.06
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 20
8 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 5
255 Passes 352
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 4
04.05.2025 Texoma 3-4 HT 2-1 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Texoma
3-2
AWAY Charlotte Independence
1.03 xG 1.71
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
254 Passes 394
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 24
7 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Texoma vs Charlotte Independence
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Texoma squeezed past Charlotte Independence 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Charlotte Independence at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Texoma had 39% of the ball to Charlotte Independence's 61%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 1.03 to 1.71 — the balance of chances actually favoured Charlotte Independence.

What was the final score of Texoma vs Charlotte Independence?

Texoma 3-2 Charlotte Independence in the USA - USL League 1 on 22/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Texoma vs Charlotte Independence?

Before kick-off our model rated an Charlotte Independence win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Texoma 31%, draw 28%, Charlotte Independence 41%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Charlotte Independence) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Charlotte Independence) ✓ BTTS Yes
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