The Strongest 1-0 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 22 Aug 2024

The Strongest
1-0 HT 1-0
CA Penarol
📅22/08/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2024

The Strongest vs CA Penarol Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.3
2-3 Goals
44%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
2.98
6+ Goals
8%
9.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.03
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.75
X/1
19%
4.01
X/2
10%
10.45
X/X
9%
5.81
2/1 EV+ ✗
16%
21.4
2/2
9%
7.62
2/X
4%
15.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.4 — our 16% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
57%
-1.2pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.6pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.5pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

The Strongest v CA Penarol — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME The Strongest EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 22%
+18% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -34% / -34%
1.55/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.51
-6% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
404 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
16.3 Crosses 19.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.6

The Strongest vs CA Penarol Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME The Strongest
1W-0D-2L
AWAY CA Penarol
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.07 xG 2.53
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
333 Passes 373
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
10 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.08.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 4-0 HT 3-0 The Strongest The Strongest LKU
18.05.2018 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 2-0 The Strongest The Strongest LKU
16.03.2018 The Strongest The Strongest 1-0 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol LKU

The Strongest 1-0 CA Penarol — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME The Strongest
1-0
AWAY CA Penarol
2.33 xG 0.37
76% Ball Possession 24%
24 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 1
423 Passes 94
86% Pass Accuracy 57%
28 Box Touches 3
45 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH The Strongest vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

The Strongest nicked a narrow win over CA Penarol 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had The Strongest as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, The Strongest had 76% of the ball to CA Penarol's 24%, shots finished 24-8, expected goals 2.33 to 0.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold The Strongest's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, CA Penarol led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for The Strongest and 2.00 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of The Strongest vs CA Penarol?

The Strongest 1-0 CA Penarol in the Copa Libertadores on 22/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for The Strongest vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated a The Strongest win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split The Strongest 56%, draw 21%, CA Penarol 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (The Strongest) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (The Strongest) ✗ Over 2.5
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